european parliament

Analysis of the European election results

By Richard Laming, Federal Union

The European election results were bad news for pro-Europeans. There’s no point trying to present it any other way.

One trick that party politicians sometimes try and play is to say that the turnout was down, which means that you can’t read so much into the result. Pro-Europeans can’t say that because a low turnout is in itself a problem. The fact that the European Parliament does not deal with such high profile issues as Westminster means that one would not expect the turnout to be as high – local elections have lower turnouts than Westminster elections, too – but it is still not something that the pro-Europeans can be particularly happy about.

And then, when one looks at how the votes were cast and not only how many, the news gets worse.

The parties whose share of the vote went up are all, with the exception of the SNP, Eurosceptic parties (at the very least), and the parties whose share went down, with the exception of the Scottish Socialists, are pro-European. (There are figures here.)

The pro-European share of the vote fell to 34 per cent of the vote from 41 per cent in 2004. More than that, the balance on the Eurosceptic side shifted slightly to parties that are explicitly opposed to EU membership. And more than that, the Conservative party, which is by far the biggest Eurosceptic party, is moving closer and closer to a position that is incompatible with EU membership, even if they do not say so explicitly. This may be deliberate, perhaps it is not, but nonetheless it is happening.

The result this weekend was historic and alarming. Up until now, elections have always confirmed broad pro-European support. Every general election since the signing of the Treaty of Rome in 1957, every European election since the introduction of direct elections in 1979, and the referendum on membership in 1975 have all produced a majority in favour of British membership of the EU. It is arguable that, for the first time, a national election may have produced an actual majority against membership.

There will be more debate about why this has happened. It is a sobering thought for now simply to reflect on the fact that it has.

This article was first published on Federal Union Blog

Where is the Greens’ Commission President Candidate?

Written by Matteo Garavoglia is PhD Candidate at the Research College Group (KFG) on the “Transformative Power of Europe” at the Free University of Berlin.

One reason for the low turnout at the elections of the European Parliament (EP) is that citizens do not see the point of voting: why to go to the ballot box when one doesn’t know what leader the vote will bring to power?

On the 27th and the 28th of April the European Greens celebrated their congress and one feature was missing: the manifesto failed to nominate the candidate for the presidency of the Commission. This is shameful in that the Greens are not taking up the opportunity of making the Union more democratic by providing European citizens with clear options concerning who should lead the Commission.

Last week the European People’s Party (EPP) announced it would back current incumbent Barroso for another term as president of the Commission. This is not surprising given the fact that Barroso himself comes from the EPP. What is surprising is that no other European political party has put forward its own candidate.

As the only political party with a realistic chance to challenge the EPP, the European Socialists (PES) should eagerly promote a candidate of their own but this is not the case: a lot of soul-searching has so gar been followed by inaction. What sort of impression are the PES and the Greens giving to the European electorate? This situation is all the more shameful in a context whereby the EP has the political tools to force the Council to appoint the leader of the largest European party as the president of the Commission. Are the European political parties ready to give more democracy to the citizens?

Matteo Garavoglia is PhD Candidate at the Research College Group (KFG) on the “Transformative Power of Europe” at the Free University of Berlin.

EP election predictions: Voters focus on political stability

Written by Marco Hardt, spokesman of Europa-Union Deutschland
Translated by Julia Brink

Berlin (ots) – Despite the economic crisis, Europeans focus on political stability. If European Elections took place today, voters would largely confirm the balance of power in the European Parliament. This is the result of the European Election Forecast Predict09.eu presented jointly by the non-partisan Europa-Union Deutschland and Burson-Marsteller in Berlin.

According to this prediction, the conservative Christian-democrat EPP-ED will remain the biggest fraction – despite the possible diverging of the British conservatives and the Czech ODS. The social-democrat PES fraction will manage to slightly enlarge their relative power in the Parliament. Altogether the center-left-parties will catch up with the center-right-parties. Extreme right and left wing parties will not play a major role in the new Parliament.

Predict09.eu forecasts a remarkable result for Germany: The SPD will improve considerably by 7,2% to 28,7%. While the CDU will degrade by 8,8% to 27,7%, the CSU will manage to overcome the 5% barrier despite great losses with 6,8% (-1,2%). The liberal FDP (+7,3% auf 13,4%) and Die Linke (+4,3% to 10,4%) will be the greatest winners of the elections, while the Greens (-2,2% auf 9,7%) will probably have to face a slight decline.

Predict09.eu is a novel method of forecasting. For the first time, it will be possible to issue prospects before the European Elections. Predict09.eu is an instrument created by the London School of Economics and the Trinity College Dublin on behalf of Burson-Marsteller. Predict09.eu is based on an evaluation of all European Elections held so far. In the framework of the analysis, the factors best suitable for explaining the outcome of the elections were determined. The results of each party according to national surveys were “corrected” according to these factors. This way of forecasting yields much more precise results than a simple addition of national surveys.

Regularly, www.predict09.eu is supplied with new national forecasts and the possible results for the composition of the seats in the European Parliament are shown.

The Predict09.eu prospects for the European Parliament:

Information on all German candidates running for a seat in the European Parliament on 7 June is available at the European Elections Portal of the Europa-Union Germany at www.wahlen-europa.de.

This article was also published on presseportal.de

Liberal campaign launch as colorblind as the other European Parties’

Written by Åsa Gunvén, FC member of UEF

Tomorrow the Liberals are having their Campaign Lunch. But without a candidate for the position of Commission President they are not offering much real influence for the voters and are missing a great opportunity for political leadership among the other European Parties that also seem to be unable to present the voters real choices.

ELDR campaign launch banner

ELDR adopted their election manifesto already in October in their Congress in Stockholm. It was an excellent move to have the Congress half a year before the other European parties and it provided a great opportunity to put forward new ideas and to show political leadership. But then somewhere along the road this opportunity was lost – 6 month later there is still no liberal candidate for the Commission from the third largest group in the European Parliament. Instead they have nominated a candidate for the President of the European Parliament – a position that does not even come close to the executive power the Commission president has.

Barroso + BrownBarosso is still standing strong – not only backed up by his political group EPP but also by several socialist prime ministers around Europe as Socrates, Zapatero and Brown. The Socialists have obviously not been up for the job to nominate a contra candidate – both at their Congress and at their Campaign launch we asked them for one but they failed to produce neither a candidate nor an argument why not to put one forward.

The Greens made an interesting move in supporting a non existing socialist candidate at their Congress recently and as first party they show an interest in making the appointment of the Commission President influenced by the European elections. This would for sure increase the chances of removing Barroso IF the Socialists nominated their candidate but the question is how much it contributes to making Europe more democratic? Thinking one step ahead, in 5 or 10 years time when hopefully the Commission has undergone some democratic reforms, do we really want to go in the direction where the option is only conservative or socialist? Coalitions are common and in my opinion very healthy for a democracy – but a coalition is usually a combination of several party programs and minister posts where me as a voter can influence how much green, red or blue should be in there. A coalition should be politically more of a Matisse collage then a Klein one-color painting and that is why wee need all of Europe’s parties and voter to claim their right to ad their color.

If one prefers a “quick fix” to the Barroso problem the support of a Socialist candidate by the smaller parties might indeed be a good option. But even here we run in to a problem as the matter of fact remains that there IS no socialist candidate. And exactly because this failure of PES to nominate a candidate there is actually a unique space for the smaller parties to do so. The liberals, as the 3rd largest group, have a unique chance to show courageous leadership to make Europe more transparent and democratic by nominating their candidate and to push the other parties to also nominate their candidates.

But the liberals do not seem interested to show leadership. The liberals are instead strategically avoiding to put forward a candidate that would later damage their credibility by “losing” the election. But in a situation where the citizens are losing faith in the political establishment, accusing EU for being undemocratic and where only 1/3 of Europeans plan to vote, we need brave and daring moves from the parties rather than a chicken play. By choosing not to nominate their candidate there is no other conclusion to be made by the voters then that the Liberals, just as the Socialists, seems to support conservative Barroso. Europe’s parties seems to be colorblind!

WIYC bannerI want to be able to influence who has the highest political position in Europe to start with and in the long run influence the entire political collage sitting in the Commission. For this we need one party to take a lead by nominating their candidate – a role non of the parties seem prepared to take. I remain as confused as ever on who to vote for with socialist supporting a conservative, Greens preferring a socialist and Liberals seemingly supporting a political vacuum.

JEF Manifesto for the 2009 European Parliament elections

JEF is a supranational, politically pluralist youth organisation with about 30,000 members in over 30 European countries. The aim of JEF is to work for the creation of a European federation as a first step towards peace and a more free, just and democratic society. Their ideas are spread through international activities and youth exchanges, publications, public actions and co-operation with other youth-organisations.

We young Europeans believe in the values of peace, freedom and solidarity.

We recognise the success of European integration in securing democracy and prosperity in Europe through the unification of the continent.

The European Union is our present and a federal Europe our future, but the rapid evolution of globalisation presents new challenges. The crises are evident in economic, financial, security and ecological matters. We can successfully face these challenges only if the EU is able to speak and to act as a real Union.

JEF EP Campaign Logo

It’s time to act!

We expect brave and innovative decisions. We want concrete benefits from the EU in our everyday life. Therefore, we demand:

  • a European Economic Policy for ensuring growth, employment and sustainable development, in particular to benefit young people;
  • a European Energy and Environmental Agency for ensuring global leadership in the battle against climate change and managing a European Energy Reserve to guarantee a strategic independence of the EU;
  • a Solidarity Clause to ensure Member states protection against terrorism and natural catastrophes;
  • European Blue Helmets enabling the EU to contribute to peace-keeping in the world in the framework of a real European security and defence policy;
  • a Citizens’ Right of Initiative in order to listen to the voice of European citizens;
  • a European Civilian Service to promote EU citizenship among young people;
  • European symbols to be officially recognised by all European institutions.


We ask the candidates for the next European Parliament elections (June 2009) to support these proposals. Furthermore, we ask the European Parliament to exercise the right to initiate a treaty change process – as established in the Lisbon treaty – to produce the necessary constitutional and legislative framework for these reforms and to give the European citizens a true federal government.

We invite European citizens and civil society to express their support to our Manifesto.

IT’S TIME FOR CHANGE… IT’S TIME FOR EUROPE!

Stronger Together in a Federal Europe: UEF Manifesto for the European Parliament 2009-14

Europe must be more united if it is to face up to its current economic and constitutional crises. This is the message of European federalists on the eve of the European Parliamentary elections.

1. The Treaty of Lisbon must be ratified and implemented efficiently as soon as possible. Once the new treaty is in force the Union will have acquired a unique capacity to act on the world stage. It will be a much more powerful, open and democratic Union. If the Lisbon treaty does not enter into force, the European Parliament should push immediately for a new constitutional Convention.

2. The EU must move quickly to establish strict, transparent supervision of the banking, securities and insurance sectors, leading to the creation of an EU financial services authority. The current weak coordination of national policies should be replaced by a common macro-economic policy. EU bonds should be launched to bolster the economic recovery plan.

3. The weak economy is no excuse to return to national protectionism. The EU should dedicate itself to the completion of the single market in finance, services, energy and intellectual property. Structural reforms of the labour market which build Europe's social dimension are badly needed to create the right conditions for renewed long-term investment. The WTO negotiations must be re-started.

4. The EU needs a radical review of its financial system. Relevant spending should be shifted from the national to the European level to get real added value out of the Union. More spent jointly at the European level means less wasted by disjointed national efforts. The EU budget should have adequate resources, financed by fiscal federalism, to fund common policies which enhance competitiveness and create green jobs across Europe. EU spending should be made fully accountable.

5. The eurozone states must assert their autonomy from those who cannot or choose not to join the single currency. The eurogroup must act as one in world monetary matters and take the lead over the reform of the international monetary system. The EU should advocate the establishment of a global network of prudential supervision across currency zones, with the longer term intention to create a world currency unit.

6. The EU must be the driving force at the UN sponsored talks on climate change. The goal is to leave Copenhagen in December 2009 with an internationally agreed package based on the EU model of cutting carbon emissions, conserving energy and increasing the use of renewables.

7. The single market must be extended to energy supply so that consumers benefit from a more competitive and better interconnected industry. The EU should invest directly in diversified sources of energy. It must help energy companies to build the European super-grid as well as the infrastructure necessary to import supplies from Asia and Africa.

8. Whatever the fate of Lisbon, the EU needs to strengthen its contribution to world peace and disarmament. This means a dedicated effort to reform the United Nations as well as building up Europe’s own civilian and military capability to be a credible peace-maker wherever it is needed.

9. Those EU states with the political will and the military means to do so must form a core group in security and defence. This will help NATO modernise and put transatlantic relations on a sound footing. If the Irish again reject Lisbon, the next urgent step must be to agree a separate EU treaty in security and defence between some but not all EU members.

10. The Union should confirm its existing commitments to enlargement, projecting its values, stability and relative prosperity throughout its own neighbourhood. As a top priority reconciliation must be achieved between the two communities in Cyprus, united in a new federal republic.

11. The task of building Europe’s common area of freedom, security and justice has only just begun. The EU urgently needs to sort out its visa policy, and fashion common policies for asylum and for legal and illegal immigration. European states must act together to combat international crime and to ensure that there is decent justice and civil liberty for all. More integration in civil law will help families and consumers.

12. The European Parliament must exercise its new democratic powers and responsibilities with energy and skill, in particular by shaping the programme of the new Commission. MEPs should reform their own electoral procedure so that, in 2014, a number of deputies are elected from a single, transnational constituency. This reform is key to making European political parties fit for purpose, connecting them directly with the citizen and giving citizens a strong voice in how Europe is run.

The Union of European Federalists is a supranational political movement committed to uniting Europe along federal lines. It addresses this manifesto to the parties and candidates campaigning for election to the European Parliament in June 2009. www.federalists.eu

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